📅 12 May 2025, Monday
🔍 Chart:
- NIFTY formed a daily inverted hammer, which could hint at a reversal—but context is key. Weekly candle? Clear bearish engulfing, no ambiguity there.
- BANKNIFTY showed a doji cross, signaling indecision. On the weekly frame, a bearish marubozu confirms strong downward bias.
🔢 Option Chain:
- NIFTY: Strong support at 24,000. If it cracks, expect a freefall due to the lack of major OI build-up below.
- Resistance visible at 24,100–24,300. It is a narrow shelf on the call side, but the put side below 24K looks like a void.
⚖️ PCR (Put/Call Ratio):
- Overall PCR: Around 1—neutral, but lacks conviction.
- ATM PCR: Near 0.7, which leans bearish. Sentiment is shaky—holding 24K is everything right now.
🧑💼 Participant Option Data:
- FIIs: Long 1.8L calls & 1.9L puts → Neutral stance with a slight defensive tilt.
- Pros: Bullish. Long 1L calls and short 30K puts shows confidence.
- Clients: Bearish bias. Heavily short on 2.7L calls and 2.2L puts.
- DIIs: Data not dominant in options today.
📈 Participant Futures Data:
- FIIs: Minor short positions (~7K contracts) → Neutral, not a serious bearish bet.
- DIIs: Long-heavy → Showing quiet confidence.
- Pros & Clients: Both mildly short.
- No aggressive bets yet, but DII’s positioning leans supportive.
💸 Participant Stock Data (Cash Market):
- FIIs sold ₹3,800 Cr in cash.
- Net cash flow: Risk-off. FII selling continues to weigh on sentiment.
🧠 Verdict:
Market is on edge. Bears have technical and institutional support, but bulls are clinging to that 24,000 lifeline. Unless this level holds, momentum could unravel quickly. Cautious to bearish tone for Monday.
💡 Trade Idea (Not a Recommendation):
Consider longing OTM puts for downside protection if 24K breaks.
Alternatively, a straddle at ATM could work if volatility expands post indecision.
⚠️ Note: This is not a buy/sell recommendation. Just a viewpoint to manage risk and reward.