Neutral Charts, Bullish Data – Who Blinks First? 14 May 2025



📊 Chart:

  • NIFTY formed a quasi-bullish harami near the 24,500 support zone, signaling a potential short-term bounce.
  • BANKNIFTY confirmed yesterday’s bearish harami, showing weakness at the top.

🔗 Option Chain:

  • The OI is completely balanced—a rare, confusing spread.
  • Key resistance at 24,700–24,800, support near 24,500–24,600.
  • No clear winner yet—feels like both bulls and bears are hedging more than attacking.

⚖️ PCR (Put/Call Ratio):

  • ATM PCR near 0.7, slightly put-heavy but mostly neutral.
  • A sentiment tug-of-war—no directional clarity.

🧑‍💼 Participant Option Data:

  • FIIs + Pros are turning bullish:
    • FIIs bought both calls and puts, but put buying was slightly higher—hedging a bounce?
    • Pros aggressively bought calls and sold puts → bullish intent is clear.
  • Clients were net bearish—sold calls and bought puts, betting on a dip.

Summary:
Big players are building upside exposure. Retail? Nervous and defensive.


📉 Participant Futures Data:

  • FIIs still net short, but added small long exposure (₹250 Cr in index futures).
  • Nothing heavy, but direction has turned mildly positive.
  • DIIs continue holding longs.

💰 Participant Stock Data:

  • FIIs bought ₹930 Cr in the cash market → that is a solid risk-on signal.
  • DIIs were quiet.

🧠 Verdict:

  • The charts are mixed, but the derivatives data leans bullish.
  • Looks like a bounce setup, but we need tomorrow’s close above today’s for confirmation.
  • Until then, it is a watch-and-react market—not a chase-one.

💡 Trades (Not a Recommendation):

Bull Put Spread near 24,500 for this week’s expiry could work if today’s lows hold.
Avoid call buying—resistance at 700/800 is too stiff.
📌 Safer to wait for a clear close tomorrow before deploying any directional trades.


🧾 Conclusion:

  • NIFTY is showing early signs of a pullback, while BANKNIFTY remains under pressure.
  • Derivative data hints that smart money is preparing for upside, while retail is still fearful.
  • Caution for now. If bulls confirm the harami tomorrow, a quick rally may catch bears off guard.

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