Retail vs Everyone Else” – Market Feels Rigged? 23 May 2025



📉 Chart

  • NIFTY: Bearish Harami invalidated. Today’s red candle with a failed bullish rejection wick hints at weakness.
  • BANKNIFTY: Small bullish hammer—but barely worth noting. Bullish Harami setup also failed.

👉 Weekly & Monthly: Both indices are forming potential bearish haramis. The May monthly candle shows indecision—like a gravestone doji. Caution is warranted heading into month-end.


🔢 Option Chain

  • Early OI formation—still Day 1 of expiry cycle.
  • BANKNIFTY 44500 PE shows signs of forming support, but it is too early to rely on it.
  • Call writers are stepping in at higher levels—possibly hinting at resistance near recent highs.

📊 PCR (Put/Call Ratio)

  • Overall PCR suggests mild bearish sentiment.
  • ATM PCRs are mixed—lack of strong directional conviction.
  • Markets appear defensive, not bullish.

🧠 Participant Option Data

  • FII: Long 1.7L Calls, Long 2.3L Puts → Hedged, not bullish.
  • Pro: Short 10K Calls, Long 5K Puts → Bearish lean.
  • Client (Retail): Massive short on both Calls and Puts → Super aggressive.
    • Short 1.5L Calls and 2.8L Puts
  • Interpretation:
    • Retail is bullish, maybe even overconfident.
    • FII + Pros are defensive, positioning for downside or volatility.

🔮 Participant Futures Data

  • FIIs added shorts.
  • DIIs turned net short—important sentiment shift.
  • Clients are lone bulls here too—long futures.
  • Verdict: Everybody is cautious… except retail.

💸 Participant Stock Data

  • FIIs sold ₹5,000 Cr in cash
  • Also sold ₹3,000 Cr in index futures
  • Clear risk-off mode
  • Smart money is not buying this dip

🧾 Verdict

The market looks increasingly like a distribution zone. Heavy selling on high volumes vs low-volume up moves screams exit by smart money. While retail traders are still betting on upside, the pros are quietly slipping out the back door.

⚠️ Sentiment: Cautiously Bearish with high-risk structure
📍NIFTY & BANKNIFTY at key inflection points—watch for weekly close confirmation.


💡 Trades (Not a Recommendation)

  • Consider hedged bearish spreads or OTM puts for tail-risk.
  • Avoid naked longs—structure favors mean reversion or deeper correction.

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