📉 Chart
- NIFTY: Bearish Harami invalidated. Today’s red candle with a failed bullish rejection wick hints at weakness.
- BANKNIFTY: Small bullish hammer—but barely worth noting. Bullish Harami setup also failed.
👉 Weekly & Monthly: Both indices are forming potential bearish haramis. The May monthly candle shows indecision—like a gravestone doji. Caution is warranted heading into month-end.
🔢 Option Chain
- Early OI formation—still Day 1 of expiry cycle.
- BANKNIFTY 44500 PE shows signs of forming support, but it is too early to rely on it.
- Call writers are stepping in at higher levels—possibly hinting at resistance near recent highs.
📊 PCR (Put/Call Ratio)
- Overall PCR suggests mild bearish sentiment.
- ATM PCRs are mixed—lack of strong directional conviction.
- Markets appear defensive, not bullish.
🧠 Participant Option Data
- FII: Long 1.7L Calls, Long 2.3L Puts → Hedged, not bullish.
- Pro: Short 10K Calls, Long 5K Puts → Bearish lean.
- Client (Retail): Massive short on both Calls and Puts → Super aggressive.
- Short 1.5L Calls and 2.8L Puts
- Interpretation:
- Retail is bullish, maybe even overconfident.
- FII + Pros are defensive, positioning for downside or volatility.
🔮 Participant Futures Data
- FIIs added shorts.
- DIIs turned net short—important sentiment shift.
- Clients are lone bulls here too—long futures.
- Verdict: Everybody is cautious… except retail.
💸 Participant Stock Data
- FIIs sold ₹5,000 Cr in cash
- Also sold ₹3,000 Cr in index futures
- Clear risk-off mode
- Smart money is not buying this dip
🧾 Verdict
The market looks increasingly like a distribution zone. Heavy selling on high volumes vs low-volume up moves screams exit by smart money. While retail traders are still betting on upside, the pros are quietly slipping out the back door.
⚠️ Sentiment: Cautiously Bearish with high-risk structure
📍NIFTY & BANKNIFTY at key inflection points—watch for weekly close confirmation.
💡 Trades (Not a Recommendation)
- Consider hedged bearish spreads or OTM puts for tail-risk.
- Avoid naked longs—structure favors mean reversion or deeper correction.