Chart Structure (NIFTY & BANKNIFTY):
- NIFTY formed a bullish harami at a critical support zone. A make-or-break moment as this zone has historically triggered rebounds.
- BANKNIFTY also printed a bullish harami, but notably near resistance levels, not support—less conviction here.
Option Chain Analysis:
- NIFTY option chain shows tight equilibrium between calls and puts around 24,600 (ATM).
- Support visible at 24,500 with puts; resistance building at 24,700–24,800.
- Key takeaway: The market is boxed between 24,500–24,800, and a breakout from this range will define the next trend.
Put/Call Ratio (PCR):
- Overall PCR at 0.6 → slightly bearish.
- ATM PCR closer to 0.7 → neutral to balanced.
- No extreme skew; traders are waiting for clarity.
Participant Option Data:
- FII: Net sold calls, net bought puts → mildly bullish tilt.
- Pro: Bought calls, sold some puts → bullish bias.
- Clients: Sold calls, bought puts → bearish.
- Interpretation: Smart money (FII + Pro) looks cautiously bullish, while retail is hedging for downside.
Participant Futures Data:
- FIIs were mostly flat—no major directional bets in futures.
- Clients are still net long; FIIs net short → tension remains in futures positioning.
Cash Market (Stock Data):
- FIIs bought ~₹1,100 Cr in equities today.
- Signals a mild risk-on sentiment in cash markets despite derivatives caution.
🎯 Verdict:
We are in a tight, high-stakes range between 24,500–25,000.
FIIs are not showing strong conviction in futures, but option data shows hidden bullish intent.
Expect volatility if 24,500 breaks down—that is your red line.
🧾 Trades (Not a Recommendation):
- 🔍 Watch 24,500: A clean break below = potential shorting opportunity with momentum.
- ⏳ Wait-and-watch bias for longs—bulls need a break above 25,000 for confidence.
- 🧲 For non-directional traders: Consider a straddle or short strangle around 24,600 if IV expands ahead of expiry.
🧵 Final Thoughts:
This is not a trending market—this is distribution.
Unless FII cash buying picks up in size or 24,500/25,000 breaks, expect more chop.
Event risk (RBI policy) looms large—volatility may spike after expiry.