📉 Chart:
- NIFTY and BANKNIFTY both printed bearish engulfing candles on daily charts.
- Key supports tested again. No intraday bounce seen—unlike past times. A telling sign.
🧾 Option Chain:
- Heavy call writing at 24600 and above; strong resistance zones forming.
- 24500 put support looks shaky—unwinding seen.
- No new put additions until 24300—gap below is dangerous.
📊 PCR:
- Overall PCR ~0.5, ATM ~0.7 → Weak sentiment.
- Trend is clearly skewing bearish. No bullish defense from put writers today.
🧠 Participant Option Data:
- FIIs and Pros aggressively sold calls and some puts.
- Clients bought lots of calls and some puts → Chasing the upside? Looks like a bull trap.
- Positioning suggests smart money expects a fall; clients may be holding the bag.
📉 Participant Futures Data:
- FIIs increased shorts in index futures by over 1 lakh contracts. Serious bet.
- DIIs went long, possibly absorbing selling. Clients also went long.
- Clear divergence—FIIs are offloading, DIIs doing the firefighting.
💸 Participant Stock Data:
- FIIs sold ₹2900 Cr in cash market.
- DIIs bought ₹2500 Cr+, but net selling remains large.
- Risk is definitely off. Smart money is exiting quietly while noise distracts the rest.
✅ Verdict:
The charts, the OI data, the PCR, the FII selling—it all adds up to a bearish setup.
Unless something dramatically changes, we are back to the bear call spread view for June expiry.
⚠️ Trades (Not a Recommendation):
- Bear Call Spreads for June series are back in favor.
- OTM puts could work if 24500 breaks cleanly.
- IVs still reasonable—could explode if panic sets in.
🫡 Trade safe. Stay skeptical. The game is rigged—learn the rigging.