📊 Chart:
- NIFTY gave a clean breakout above its recent swing high, invalidating the bearish Harami setup. Strong bullish candle confirmed the move.
- BANKNIFTY is still range-bound, but today’s green candle hints at a retest of its breakout zone. Slightly lagging NIFTY.
🔍 Option Chain:
- NIFTY: Strong base building at 25,000 PE, but OI is still developing as it is just Day 1 of the new expiry.
- BANKNIFTY: Support visible around 48,500–49,000, though nothing aggressive yet on resistance levels.
📈 PCR (Put/Call Ratio):
- Overall PCR near 1, showing mild bullish bias.
- ATM PCR near 0.7: A slight caution, suggesting calls are still being written — participants not fully chasing the rally yet.
👥 Participant Option Data:
- FIIs: Long in both calls (1.8L) and puts (2L) – positioning for volatility but slightly bullish.
- PROs: Long calls + short puts = clear bullish stance.
- Clients: Short both calls and puts – a neutral to bearish tilt.
- DII data not active here, but overall, smart money (FII/PRO) is leaning bullish.
📉 Participant Futures Data:
- FIIs: Reducing their shorts = confidence building.
- DIIs: Reducing their longs = a bit of risk-off from institutions.
- PROs: Slightly short, but nothing aggressive.
- Clients: Neutral.
Interpretation: No major directional futures bets, but reduction in shorts suggests upward acceptance.
💰 Participant Stock Data:
- FIIs bought ₹5,000 CR in cash – very bullish signal.
- This is classic risk-on behavior, confirmed by sharp rebounds in midcaps and small caps.
✅ Verdict:
Today was a clear breakout day for NIFTY. FIIs are buying heavily, and smart money is long on options. While BANKNIFTY is still playing catch-up, the tone across data is bullish. Momentum favors staying with the trend.
💡 Trades (Not a Recommendation):
- Bull Put Spreads on NIFTY (e.g., Sell 25,000 PE / Buy 24,800 PE) may offer favorable risk-reward.
- If holding long-term puts, consider short-term call spreads or bull put spreads to offset some decay and ride short-term bullishness.
⚠️ This is not investment advice. Just a market observation for risk-reward consideration.