📉 Chart Structure:
- NIFTY formed a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly timeframe, suggesting potential upside—but it is right at the top of a well-defined range.
- BANK NIFTY broke out cleanly and closed at a fresh all-time high, showing clear strength. Bullish marubozu patterns were spotted on both daily and weekly charts.
🔢 Option Chain Analysis:
- Writers aggressively added puts across the board on Friday.
- No meaningful resistance built up above 25,000.
- 25,000–24,900 zone acting as solid support.
- 25,100 remains a key resistance (tested but not convincingly broken yet).
📈 PCR (Put/Call Ratio):
- Overall PCR: 1.1
- ATM PCR: Also bullish
- Indicates a put-heavy market, hinting at positive sentiment and trader confidence in support holding.
👥 Participant Option Data:
- FIIs: Bought calls, sold puts ✅
- Pros: Heavily long on calls, light on puts ✅
- Clients: Sold calls, bought puts ❌
- Interpretation:
- Smart money is aggressively long,
- Retail is defensive—likely fueling the breakout further.
- This divergence is a classic fuel-for-upside setup.
🔮 Participant Futures Data:
- FIIs covered shorts and added new longs worth ₹2,500 Cr—that is significant!
- Clients booked some longs—mildly cautious.
- Futures flow confirms bullish follow-through.
💰 Participant Stock Data (Cash Market):
- FIIs bought stocks worth ₹1,000 Cr
- Sentiment: Risk-on
- Private banks rallied hard—IDFC +7%, RBL +5%, IndusInd +2%
🧾 Verdict:
NIFTY and BANKNIFTY both look bullish on charts and data, but 25,100 is the final boss. Despite the RBI surprise, NIFTY still could not break out convincingly. That is the only red flag.
Bias remains bullish, but cautious until 25,100 is taken out with authority. If it breaks, next stops could be 25,300–25,500.
💡 Trade Observation (Not a Recommendation):
🟢 Straddle buyers may benefit if NIFTY breaks 25,100 and volatility expands.
🔴 Avoid selling puts here—premium is not worth the risk.
⚠️ Wait for a decisive close above 25,100 before building aggressive longs.
✅ Final Takeaway:
- BANKNIFTY is already in beast mode.
- NIFTY needs to prove itself at 25,100.
- Smart money is clearly bullish, retail is hesitant—that often means upside potential remains.
- Keep it simple: Above 25,100 = Game on. Below = Play safe.