📉 “Doji Dilemma: Markets Look Tired Near 25K Wall May 19, 2025”


Chart:

  • NIFTY printed a Doji near 24,920, signaling indecision at the top of a prior bullish breakout. A small hanging man from Friday appears to be confirming.
  • BANKNIFTY showed a near shooting star—not perfect, but still hinting at supply pressure.

Option Chain:

  • Massive resistance stacked at 25,000 CE and above—looks like everyone’s writing calls there.
  • Support? Pretty much missing. Even 24,800 PE lacks comfort. Market is tilted bearish on OI data alone.

PCR (Put/Call Ratio):

  • Overall PCR ~0.6. Same around ATM.
  • Indicates a clear bearish bias—puts being unwound, calls being sold aggressively.

Participant Option Data:

  • FIIs: Bought puts, sold calls = đź”» bearish.
  • Pros: Sold both calls and puts = cautious bearish lean.
  • Clients (retail): Bought 60,000 calls = 🤞 hoping for upside.
  • Net-net: Smart money is defensive, retail is the only one swinging for highs.

Participant Futures Data:

  • No major action. FIIs increased shorts, but size is small. Others are just loitering around.

Participant Stock Data:

  • FIIs sold ₹500 Cr in cash market—not a big amount but sentiment still feels risk-off.
  • DII flows are too mild to counterbalance.

Verdict:

The market is showing indecision on charts but clear caution in positioning. 25,000 is becoming a psychological and technical wall. Looks like a low-confidence week ahead with a bearish tilt.


Trades (Not a Recommendation):

🛡️ Bear Call Spreads around 25,000 might make sense if resistance holds.
🎯 Short straddles or strangles could also work—IV is compressed and charts show indecision.

⚠️ This is not investment advice. Just a view to think through risk-reward.


Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *